Based on 2023-24 data, the New Orleans Pelicans are clear favorites due to superior recent form, better roster health, and a dominant head-to-head record. The Grizzlies struggled offensively and were hampered by injuries to key players like Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. Unless Memphis dramatically improves health and roster quality by 2026, New Orleans holds a decisive advantage. However, confidence is limited by lack of up-to-date data for 2026.

The New Orleans Pelicans are favored to win this matchup based on multiple convergent factors. Historically, New Orleans dominates this series (7-3 over recent years, 3-1 in 2023-24), and their superior defensive infrastructure and balanced scoring attack presents significant challenges for a Memphis team struggling with injuries and offensive consistency. The Grizzlies finished 2023-24 with the 30th-ranked offense and poor home record (11-30), creating vulnerability against an elite Pelicans defense ranked 6th in the league. New Orleans' road performance (25-16) demonstrates they travel well, while Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram provide depth that Memphis cannot match without a fully healthy roster. Confidence is moderated to 72% due to the extended timeframe (November 2026) creating uncertainty about roster compositions, injury statuses, and potential team developments.

This assessment assumes a return to form for the Memphis Grizzlies following their injury-riddled 2023-24 campaign. By November 2026, the core trio of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane should be in their physical primes, providing a high-octane transition offense that was missing during their down year. Memphis traditionally relies on a high-pressure defense and paint dominance, which matches up well against a Pelicans team that, while talented, has historically struggled with consistency and health of their own star, Zion Williamson. In a neutral health scenario in late 2026, the Grizzlies' home-court intensity often tips the scales in close divisional games. Expect a high-scoring affair where Memphis's ability to force turnovers and score in transition outweighs the Pelicans' half-court execution.