Analysis recorded · Nov 02 00:12 UTC
The data-based estimate supports this direction.
Data as of · 2026-11-02 16:02
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
Brest Win
Confidence
72%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Key Analysis Points
| Outcome | Odds | Market Prob | AI Prob | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient Win | +128 | 38.2% | 17.5% | -60.1% |
| Draw | +200 | 29.0% | 27.5% | -17.5% |
| Brest Win | +165 | 32.8% | 55.0% | +45.8% |
📊 High Odds Investment: Value bets with odds ≥ 2.0 have lower hit rates but positive expected returns over time. The math works when you bet consistently — even hitting 1 out of 3 at 4.0x odds yields profit. Never bet more than Kelly suggests. Patience and bankroll discipline are key.
Brest dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters.
Brest finished the 2023-24 season in 3rd place with a strong defense and superior form, while Lorient was relegated after a poor defensive record.
Lorient conceded the most goals in Ligue 1 last season and is likely to face significant squad changes following relegation.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Prediction: Brest Win
Score: 1 - 2
Based on the latest available data, Brest is the clear favorite due to their superior form, defensive stability, and consistent results in both league standings and direct encounters with Lorient. Lorient's relegation and defensive struggles, combined with likely squad turnover, further tip the balance toward Brest. However, given the time gap to the fixture and possible squad changes by 2026, confidence is moderate rather than absolute, and a derby context can always add unpredictability.
Prediction: Brest Win
Score: 1 - 2
Brest emerges as the clear favorite based on comprehensive historical and statistical analysis. The Breton club has dominated the Derby de la Bretagne recently, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters, demonstrating a consistent tactical advantage over Lorient. Defensively, Brest conceded just 34 goals compared to Lorient's 68—a structural weakness that persists. While Lorient may improve if promoted before 2026, Brest's trajectory, European ambitions, and established winning pattern against this opponent suggest an away victory. Expected score: 1-2 to Brest.
Prediction: Brest Win
Score: 1 - 2
Brest enters this fixture as the favorite based on historical head-to-head dominance and a significantly higher performance ceiling in recent years. During the 2023-24 cycle, Brest established themselves as one of France's most disciplined defensive units, a trait that typically persists under stable technical structures. Lorient, while having the home advantage in this Breton derby, has historically struggled to contain Brest's efficient attacking transitions. In a derby environment, intensity is expected to be high, but the technical gap remains the deciding factor. Lorient's path to a result relies on a low-block defensive strategy, yet their track record suggests they struggle to maintain clean sheets against clinical opposition. Brest's ability to control the midfield and manage the tempo of the game likely dictates the outcome, leading to a narrow but decisive away victory.
Max probability 55.0% · Gap 27.5%p
Strategy: Uncertain match. Avoid single 1X2 bets — use Double Chance or Over/Under markets below to protect your bankroll.
Recorded · 2026-11-02 16:02
Lorient · 2025/2026 · 9th · 11W 12D 11L (GD -3)
Brest · 2025/2026 · 12th · 10W 9D 15L (GD -12)
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
4
Draws
1
Away Wins
5
Last meeting: 2026-02-08 (2-0)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Slight decline
Slight decline
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
At Home
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 3
At Home
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 11W 12D 11L | -3 GD | 1.41 / 1.5 |
| 2024/2025 | Ligue 2 | #1 | 22W 5D 7L | +37 GD | 2.0 / 0.91 |
| 2023/2024 | Ligue 1 | #17 | 7W 8D 19L | -23 GD | 1.26 / 1.94 |
| 2022/2023 | Ligue 1 | #10 | 15W 10D 13L | 55 pts -1 GD | 1.37 / 1.39 |
| 2021/2022 | Ligue 1 | #16 | 8W 12D 18L | 36 pts -28 GD | 0.92 / 1.66 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Ligue 1 | #12 | 10W 9D 15L | -12 GD | 1.26 / 1.62 |
| 2024/2025 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 15W 5D 14L | -7 GD | 1.53 / 1.74 |
| 2023/2024 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 17W 10D 7L | +19 GD | 1.56 / 1.0 |
| 2022/2023 | Ligue 1 | #14 | 11W 11D 16L | 44 pts -10 GD | 1.16 / 1.42 |
| 2021/2022 | Ligue 1 | #11 | 13W 9D 16L | 48 pts -8 GD | 1.29 / 1.5 |
Registered players with season stats
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 28 Sambusumano (25) | 26 | 4 | 2 |
| FW | 10 Pablo Pagis (24) | 21 | 8 | 1 |
| FW | 9 Muhammad Bamba (25) | 18 | 1 | 3 |
| FW | 12 Amadu Dieng (26) | 15 | 7 | 3 |
| MF | 29 Karim Dermane (23) | 25 | 1 | 3 |
| MF | 17 Jean-Victor Makengo (28) | 24 | 3 | 1 |
| MF | 62 Arthur Avom (2026) | 24 | 1 | 3 |
| MF | 6 Rorang Abereugel (33) Ankle injury | 23 | 1 | 6 |
| MF | 8 Noah Cadiou (28) | 21 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 5 Maiteu Apdul Bamo | 20 | 0 | 4 |
| MF | 15 Tosin Aiyegun (28) | 20 | 4 | 1 |
| MF | 77 Panos Katseris (25) | 9 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 11 Theo Le Bris (24) | 26 | 2 | - |
| DF | 3 Montassar Talbi (28) | 25 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 44 Dareurain Jidan Gangamei (26) | 20 | 0 | 3 1 |
| DF | 2 Igoreu Silba (30) Injured | 14 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 25 Faye Abdoulaye (22) | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| DF | 32 Nathaniel Adjei (24) | 9 | 0 | - |
| GK | 38 Ibon Eumbogo (32) | 24 | 0 | - |
| GK | 21 Bingourou Kamara (30) | 3 | 0 | - |
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 10 Romain Del Castillo (30) | 25 | 8 | 1 1 |
| FW | 19 Rudobichi Ahoreuke (32) | 25 | 7 | 9 1 |
| FW | 99 Pathe Mboup (23) | 22 | 1 | 6 |
| FW | 17 Mama Baldé (31) | 14 | 2 | - |
| MF | 13 Joris Chotard (25) | 26 | 2 | 2 |
| MF | 8 Hugo Magnetti (28) | 26 | 1 | 4 |
| MF | 14 Remy Labeau (23) | 21 | 4 | 2 |
| MF | 7 Erik Dina (26) | 21 | 2 | 2 |
| MF | 23 Kamory Doumbia (23) Injured | 20 | 5 | 6 |
| MF | 24 Rukaseu Tujareu (29) | 19 | 0 | - |
| DF | 77 Kenny Lala (35) | 26 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 5 Beurendan Syadonet (32) | 24 | 0 | 4 |
| DF | 27 Gindo Dauda | 20 | 0 | 3 1 |
| DF | 2 Roko Beuraedeulri | 19 | 0 | - |
| DF | 4 Michel Diaz Jr. (23) | 16 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 44 Kulribalri Somilra | 13 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 12 Luc Zogbe (2026) | 6 | 0 | - |
| GK | 30 Geuregoieo Kudeoteu (27) | 18 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Radoseulra Majeki (27) | 10 | 0 | 1 |
29 updates · opening vs current
Home
2.48
unchanged
Draw
3.26
unchanged
Away
2.96
unchanged
| Time | Home | Draw | Away | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 (08:59) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (08:49) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (08:39) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (08:29) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (08:19) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (08:09) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (07:59) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (07:49) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (07:39) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (07:29) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (07:19) | 2.48 38.48% | 3.26 29.27% | 2.96 32.24% | 95.45% |
| 2026-11-02 (07:09) | 2.48 38.44% | 3.26 29.24% | 2.95 32.32% | 95.34% |
| 2026-11-02 (06:59) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (06:49) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (06:39) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (06:29) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (06:19) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (06:09) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (05:59) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (05:49) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (05:39) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (05:29) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (05:19) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (05:09) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (04:59) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (04:49) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (04:39) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (04:29) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
| 2026-11-02 (04:19) | 2.47 38.5% | 3.25 29.26% | 2.95 32.24% | 95.09% |
How to read these records: Three windows on team form · How much should head-to-head matter?
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How to read these odds: Implied probability: why 2.00 becomes 50% · Why odds move
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The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
Moneyline
| Outcome | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|
| Home | +128 | +148 |
| Draw | +200 | +226 |
| Away | +165 | +196 |
Moneyline
| Outcome | Odds | Closing | Overseas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | +134 | +148 | +149 |
| Draw | +180 | +226 | +222 |
| Away | +175 | +196 | +206 |
Spread (-1)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | +375 | +436 |
| Draw | +250 | +279 |
| Away | -189 | -172 |
Spread (-2)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | +950 | +1123 |
| Draw | +550 | +590 |
| Away | -909 | -625 |
Home
+128
38.2%
Draw
+200
29.0%
Away
+165
32.8%
Home
+134
38.2%
Draw
+180
29.0%
Away
+175
32.8%
Home
+390
17.8%
Draw
+265
23.8%
Away
-204
58.4%
Home
+1200
6.7%
Draw
+580
12.8%
Away
-1250
80.5%
Home
+375
Draw
+250
Away
-189
Home
+950
Draw
+550
Away
-909
Over
-109
45.3%
Under
-169
54.7%
Over
-109
Under
-169
Odd
-123
49.7%
Even
-127
50.3%
Full game · Spread (home) -1.0 · 11-03 (Tue) 04:45 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 4.75↓ | 3.50↓ | 1.53↑ |
| Initial | 5.74 | 4.11 | 1.46 |
| Opening | 4.90 | 3.65 | 1.49 |
| Overseas | 5.36↓ | 3.79↑ | 1.58↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | +0.61 | +0.29 | +0.05 |
| # | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.90 | 3.65 | 1.49 |
Recorded purchase snapshot. Amount and payout index retain source values; units are not supplied.
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