The forecast. The market. The evidence.
Analysis recorded · Oct 26 21:52 UTC
The data-based estimate supports this direction.
Data as of · 2026-11-02 16:02
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
Analysis recorded · Oct 26 21:52 UTC
The data-based estimate supports this direction.
Data as of · 2026-11-02 16:02
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
Atalanta Win
Confidence
75%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Key Analysis Points
| Outcome | Odds | Market Prob | AI Prob | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta Win | -227 | 60.4% | 67.5% | -2.8% |
| Draw | +285 | 22.6% | 20.0% | -23.0% |
| Parma Win | +410 | 17.0% | 12.5% | -36.3% |
Atalanta has a dominant historical record against Parma, especially at home.
Atalanta finished the 2023–24 season with strong form and a European trophy, while Parma is newly promoted.
Atalanta's attacking depth and tactical stability under Gasperini provide a significant edge.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Prediction: Atalanta Win
Score: 2 - 0
Based on recent trends, Atalanta's consistent top-four finishes and strong home form make them clear favorites, especially against a Parma side adjusting to top-flight football after promotion. The head-to-head record also heavily favors Atalanta, who have dominated recent matchups. While Parma showed resilience in Serie B, the step up in quality and Atalanta's firepower suggest a comfortable home win. Confidence is high, but the analysis is limited by the lack of 2026-specific data.
Prediction: Atalanta Win
Score: 2 - 0
Atalanta enters this fixture as overwhelming favorites, backed by compelling historical data and recent form. The Bergamo club has dominated Parma in recent Serie A encounters, winning 9 of 12 meetings since 2010, with particularly emphatic victories (5-0, 5-2, 3-0). Meanwhile, Parma, despite their impressive Serie B championship campaign, face a significant step up in quality. Their defensive solidity in the second tier (0.9 goals conceded per game) will be tested against Atalanta's creative attacking system under Gasperini, featuring Lookman, Koopmeiners, and Scamacca. At home in Bergamo, Atalanta's pressing intensity and set-piece threat should prove decisive. Parma will need exceptional organization to frustrate Atalanta, but their away form in Serie B (10-6-3) suggests vulnerability against top-tier opposition.
Prediction: Atalanta Win
Score: 3 - 1
Atalanta enters this fixture as the clear favorite based on their consistent performance in the upper echelons of Serie A and their recent European pedigree. Historically, they have dominated Parma, winning their last five encounters with significant goal margins. Their high-pressing style and tactical fluidity under Gian Piero Gasperini often overwhelm sides that lack defensive depth or experience at the top level. Parma, while showing promise during their promotion campaign, often struggles against the intensity of 'La Dea' in Bergamo. The gap in squad quality and tactical maturity between a Champions League contender and a side aiming for mid-table stability is usually evident. Unless Parma undergoes a massive recruitment drive by 2026, the home side's offensive firepower—led by established stars—should prove too much for the visitors' defense to handle over 90 minutes.
Max probability 67.5% · Gap 47.5%p
Strategy: Clear favorite detected. Consider the main market or safe derivative options below for steady compound returns.
Recorded · 2026-11-02 16:02
Atalanta · 2025/2026 · 7th · 15W 14D 9L (GD +15)
Parma · 2025/2026 · 13th · 11W 12D 15L (GD -18)
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
8
Draws
1
Away Wins
1
Last meeting: 2026-01-25 (4-0)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Sharp decline
Sharp decline
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Overall
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 2
At Home
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 2
Away
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
At Home
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Away
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #7 | 15W 14D 9L | +15 GD | 1.34 / 0.95 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie A | #3 | 22W 8D 8L | +41 GD | 2.05 / 0.97 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie A | #4 | 21W 6D 11L | +30 GD | 1.89 / 1.11 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie A | #5 | 19W 7D 12L | 64 pts +18 GD | 1.74 / 1.26 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie A | #8 | 16W 11D 11L | 59 pts +17 GD | 1.71 / 1.26 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #13 | 11W 12D 15L | -18 GD | 0.74 / 1.21 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie A | #16 | 7W 15D 16L | -14 GD | 1.16 / 1.53 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie B | #1 | 21W 13D 4L | +31 GD | 1.74 / 0.92 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie B | #4 | 17W 10D 11L | 60 pts +9 GD | 1.26 / 1.03 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie B | #12 | 11W 16D 11L | 49 pts +5 GD | 1.26 / 1.13 |
Registered players with season stats
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 90 Nikola Krstovic (26) | 26 | 8 | 2 |
| FW | 9 Janruka Seukamaka (27) Muscle injury | 20 | 8 | 2 |
| FW | 18 Giacomo Raspadori (26) | 5 | 1 | - |
| MF | 59 Nicola Zalewski (24) | 26 | 2 | 3 |
| MF | 15 Mareuten Deu Run (35) | 26 | 1 | 8 1 |
| MF | 4 Isak Hien (27) Injured | 25 | 1 | 4 |
| MF | 8 Mario Pašalić (31) | 25 | 3 | 2 |
| MF | 13 Edeoseun Rurenko (27) | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 10 Rajareu Samareudichi (24) | 23 | 2 | 1 |
| MF | 17 Charles De Ketelaere (25) | 23 | 3 | 3 |
| MF | 7 Sulremana Kamal Din | 22 | 2 | 3 |
| MF | 6 Yunuseu Musa (24) | 16 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 19 Berateu Dimsiti (33) | 27 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 77 Davide Zappacosta (34) | 27 | 2 | 2 |
| DF | 47 Lorenzo Bernasconi (23) | 20 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 16 Raoul Bellanova (26) | 18 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 42 Seukalbining Joreujio | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| DF | 3 Odilon Kossounou (26) | 15 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 23 Sead Kolašinac (33) | 13 | 0 | 3 |
| GK | 29 Marco Carnesecchi (26) | 30 | 0 | - |
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 9 Mateo Pelregeurino (25) | 30 | 8 | 4 |
| FW | 39 Alresandeuro Circati (23) | 23 | 1 | 5 |
| FW | 17 Jeikop Ondeureika (24) | 15 | 0 | 2 |
| FW | 23 Nesta Elphege (25) | 3 | 0 | - |
| FW | 29 Kareuboni Peurangko | 2 | 0 | - |
| MF | 16 Mandela Keita | 29 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 22 Olribeo Sorenseun (24) | 28 | 1 | 2 |
| MF | 10 Aedeurian Bereunabe Gareusia (25) Muscle injury | 27 | 3 | - |
| MF | 8 Nahuel Eseutebejeu (31) | 26 | 0 | 3 |
| MF | 24 Christian Ordonez (22) | 20 | 1 | 5 1 |
| MF | 21 Gaetano Oriseutanio (24) | 19 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 11 Pontuseu Alkeubiseuteu (27) Thigh injury | 9 | 0 | - |
| MF | 25 Benjamin Cremaschi (21) Injured | 8 | 0 | - |
| MF | 7 Gabeuriel Seuteurepeja (29) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 41 Hanseu Nikolrusi Kabilria (26) | 7 | 0 | - |
| DF | 15 Enrico Del Prato (27) | 28 | 1 | 5 |
| DF | 14 Emanuele Valeri (28) | 26 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 5 Lautaro Valenti (27) | 22 | 0 | 6 |
| DF | 37 Mariano Troilo (56) | 14 | 1 | 7 2 |
| DF | 3 Abdoulaye Ndiaye | 7 | 0 | 4 1 |
| GK | 40 Edoardo Corvi (25) | 16 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 31 Sion Seujeuki (24) | 13 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 66 Pilripo Rinaldi (24) | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How to read these records: Three windows on team form · How much should head-to-head matter?
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How to read these odds: Implied probability: why 2.00 becomes 50% · Why odds move
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The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
Moneyline
| Outcome | Odds | Closing | Overseas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | -250 | -196 | -200 |
| Draw | +305 | +351 | +374 |
| Away | +430 | +494 | +521 |
Spread (-1)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | +124 | +126 |
| Draw | +230 | +266 |
| Away | +150 | +168 |
Spread (-2)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | +300 | +296 |
| Draw | +305 | +359 |
| Away | -189 | -156 |
Home
-250
60.4%
Draw
+305
22.6%
Away
+430
17.1%
Home
+124
Draw
+230
Away
+150
Home
+300
Draw
+305
Away
-189
Home
+130
37.8%
Draw
+235
26.0%
Away
+140
36.2%
Home
+315
20.9%
Draw
+320
20.7%
Away
-204
58.4%
Over
-233
Under
+122
Over
-213
59.2%
Under
+113
40.8%
Odd
-125
50.0%
Even
-125
50.0%
Full game · Odd/Even · 11-03 (Tue) 04:45 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Odd | Even |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Initial | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Opening | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Overseas | 1.90↑ | 1.87↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | +0.10 | +0.07 |
| # | Odd | Even |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
Recorded purchase snapshot. Amount and payout index retain source values; units are not supplied.
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