Analysis recorded · Oct 26 21:51 UTC
The data-based estimate points in a different direction. Compare the evidence in AI analysis.
Data as of · 2026-11-02 16:02
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
Fiorentina Win
Confidence
70%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Key Analysis Points
| Outcome | Odds | Market Prob | AI Prob | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo Win | +155 | 34.1% | 22.5% | -42.6% |
| Draw | +240 | 25.6% | 25.0% | -15.0% |
| Fiorentina Win | +116 | 40.3% | 52.5% | +13.4% |
📊 High Odds Investment: Value bets with odds ≥ 2.0 have lower hit rates but positive expected returns over time. The math works when you bet consistently — even hitting 1 out of 3 at 4.0x odds yields profit. Never bet more than Kelly suggests. Patience and bankroll discipline are key.
Fiorentina showed stronger form and better squad depth as of 2024.
Sassuolo struggled defensively, finishing 19th and relegated in 2023-24.
Head-to-head slightly favors Fiorentina, with recent meetings often close but trending Fiorentina's way.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. However, the analysis data favours a different outcome — treat this match as uncertain.
Prediction: Fiorentina Win
Score: 1 - 2
Based on the latest available data (up to mid-2024), Fiorentina were a top-half Serie A club with solid attacking output, while Sassuolo were relegated after a season of defensive struggles. Fiorentina also had the edge in recent head-to-heads. While squad changes and form in 2026 are unknown, historical trends and team quality suggest Fiorentina are likely to win. Confidence is tempered by the two-year gap and potential roster changes for both clubs.
Prediction: Fiorentina Win
Score: 1 - 2
Sassuolo's relegation from Serie A in 2023-24 indicates fundamental weaknesses—particularly a poor defensive record (1.97 goals conceded per game) and weak home performances. Fiorentina, by contrast, showed consistency as mid-table contenders with balanced home/away records and superior attacking output (1.61 goals per game). Even accounting for potential squad rebuilding by 2026, Fiorentina's proven tactical superiority and winning H2H record give them a decisive edge. Sassuolo's relegation suggests they would need significant investment and restructuring to compete effectively, whereas Fiorentina's European pedigree indicates stronger institutional capability.
Prediction: Fiorentina Win
Score: 1 - 2
Based on historical trajectories and the 2024 data, Fiorentina enters this match as the favorite. While Sassuolo has a reputation for offensive flair, their catastrophic defensive record leading into their 2024 relegation suggests a structural instability that is difficult to rectify quickly. Fiorentina's established presence in European competitions and more balanced tactical approach under a possession-oriented system gives them a significant edge in controlling the tempo of the game. Sassuolo will likely rely on home advantage and high-intensity counter-attacks, but Fiorentina's technical quality in the midfield is expected to bypass the press. Given that Sassuolo would be in a recovery phase following their stint in Serie B, the gap in quality between the two rosters remains the deciding factor. We expect a competitive match with goals on both sides, but Fiorentina's clinical finishing should secure the three points on the road.
Max probability 52.5% · Gap 27.5%p
Strategy: Uncertain match. Avoid single 1X2 bets — use Double Chance or Over/Under markets below to protect your bankroll.
Recorded · 2026-11-02 16:02
Sassuolo · 2025/2026 · 11th · 14W 7D 17L (GD -4)
Fiorentina · 2025/2026 · 15th · 9W 15D 14L (GD -9)
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
4
Draws
3
Away Wins
3
Last meeting: 2026-04-26 (0-0)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Strong upward trend
Sharp decline
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 3
At Home
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 3
Away
Best: Unbeaten 1
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
At Home
Best: Unbeaten 1
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #11 | 14W 7D 17L | -4 GD | 1.21 / 1.32 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie B | #1 | 25W 7D 6L | +40 GD | 2.05 / 1.0 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie A | #19 | 7W 9D 22L | -32 GD | 1.13 / 1.97 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie A | #13 | 12W 9D 17L | 45 pts -14 GD | 1.24 / 1.61 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie A | #11 | 13W 11D 14L | 50 pts -2 GD | 1.68 / 1.74 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #15 | 9W 15D 14L | -9 GD | 1.08 / 1.32 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie A | #6 | 19W 8D 11L | +19 GD | 1.58 / 1.08 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie A | #8 | 17W 9D 12L | +15 GD | 1.61 / 1.21 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie A | #8 | 15W 11D 12L | 56 pts +10 GD | 1.39 / 1.13 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie A | #7 | 19W 5D 14L | 62 pts +8 GD | 1.55 / 1.34 |
Registered players with season stats
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 99 Andeurea Pinamonti (27) | 28 | 7 | 1 1 |
| FW | 20 Elriu Padera (25) Injured | 25 | 2 | 4 |
| FW | 10 Domenico Berardi (32) | 20 | 7 | 2 |
| FW | 24 Ruka Moro (25) | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 8 Eumbalra Eunjolra (30) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 45 Armand Laurienté (28) | 30 | 5 | 3 |
| MF | 21 Jei Ideseu (26) | 29 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 90 Kone Iseumael | 27 | 5 | 4 1 |
| MF | 18 Nemanja Matic (38) | 26 | 1 | 6 1 |
| MF | 80 Tarik Muharemobichi (23) | 26 | 2 | 5 |
| MF | 42 Keuriseutian Soreuseuteubeteu (27) | 24 | 3 | 6 |
| MF | 7 Cristian Volpato (23) | 16 | 1 | 2 |
| MF | 35 Luca Lipani (21) | 16 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 40 Aseuteo Beurangkeuseu (24) Injured | 15 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 44 Edoardo Iannoni (25) | 14 | 1 | 3 |
| MF | 11 Daniel Bîrligea (28) Muscle injury | 2 | 0 | - |
| DF | 6 Sebaseutian Walrukiebichi (26) | 28 | 0 | 6 |
| DF | 3 Josh Doig (24) | 28 | 0 | 4 |
| DF | 25 Uyo Kulribalri (27) | 13 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 5 Palri Kaendeu (28) Knee Injury30.06.2026 | 12 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 23 Ulriseseu Gareusia (30) | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 19 Pilripo Romanya (29) | 4 | 0 | - |
| GK | 49 Arijanet Muric | 29 | 0 | 4 |
| GK | 13 Turati Seutepano | 1 | 0 | - |
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 10 Albereuteu Gudeumundeuson (29) | 26 | 5 | 3 |
| FW | 91 Robereuto Pikkolri (25) | 26 | 3 | - |
| FW | 20 Moiseu Kin (26) | 25 | 8 | 4 |
| FW | 19 Manureu Solromon (27) Muscle injury | 9 | 2 | - |
| MF | 8 Rolando Mandragora (29) Calf injury | 28 | 6 | 6 |
| MF | 44 Nicolò Fagioli (25) | 27 | 1 | 4 |
| MF | 27 Syereu Eundureu (22) | 25 | 2 | 2 |
| MF | 22 Jakopo Pajjini (23) | 15 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 4 Marco Brescianini (26) Inactive | 11 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 17 Haeriseun Jaek | 8 | 0 | - |
| MF | 80 Pabian Jobanni | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 11 Apdelhamideu Sabiri (30) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 2 Dudu (28) | 29 | 1 | 6 |
| DF | 5 Marin Pongračić (29) | 28 | 0 | 9 |
| DF | 6 Luca Ranieri (27) | 27 | 1 | 7 |
| DF | 15 Pietro Comuzzo (21) | 22 | 1 | 2 |
| DF | 65 Pabiano Pari (26) | 20 | 1 | 5 |
| DF | 21 Robin Hosenseu (32) | 19 | 2 | 2 |
| DF | 3 Danielre Rugani (32) Inactive | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 43 David de Gea (36) | 30 | 0 | - |
How to read these records: Three windows on team form · How much should head-to-head matter?
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The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
Moneyline
| Outcome | Odds | Closing | Overseas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | +155 | +183 | +185 |
| Draw | +225 | +268 | +269 |
| Away | +122 | +135 | +140 |
Spread (1)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | -185 | -164 |
| Draw | +290 | +314 |
| Away | +310 | +345 |
Spread (2)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | -625 | -476 |
| Draw | +500 | +625 |
| Away | +730 | +814 |
Home
+155
34.1%
Draw
+225
25.6%
Away
+122
40.3%
Home
-185
Draw
+290
Away
+310
Home
-625
Draw
+500
Away
+730
Home
-185
56.5%
Draw
+290
22.3%
Away
+310
21.2%
Home
-769
77.0%
Draw
+540
13.6%
Away
+820
9.4%
Over
+118
Under
-222
Over
+118
39.9%
Under
-222
60.1%
Odd
-125
50.0%
Even
-125
50.0%
Full game · Spread (home) +1.0 · 11-03 (Tue) 02:30 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 1.54 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| Initial | 1.58 | 4.00 | 4.32 |
| Opening | 1.54 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| Overseas | 1.61↑ | 4.14↑ | 4.45↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | +0.07 | +0.24 | +0.35 |
| # | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.54 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
Recorded purchase snapshot. Amount and payout index retain source values; units are not supplied.
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